Calendar Highlights for June 24th – June 28th 2013

Several important data points addressed this week including US GDP, inflation, sentiment and housing data. Fed policy U-turn is a possibility if macro data weakens.

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	Description and importance	Markets affected	NY Time	London Time	AEST
German IFO Business Climate Index	Leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the outlook of businesses The business outlook in the euro-zone’s largest economy forecast to be more optimistic at 106.0 in June, compared with a reading of 105.7 in the previous month.	EUR pairs, Euro Stoxx, DAX	Monday 04:00	Monday 09:00	Monday 18:00
U.S. Durable Goods Orders	A gauge of industrial activity measuring orders for durable goods placed with domestic manufacturers. Durable goods orders are expected to rise for another month by 3.0% m/m in May, slightly lower than the 3.5% m/m increase in April.	USD pairs, Dow, NASDAQ S&P,	Tuesday 08:30	Tuesday 13:30	Tuesday 22:30
U.S. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales	Gauges housing market conditions measuring sales of newly-constructed homes A small pullback in consumer confidence could bring the index lower to 75. 6 in May from 76.2 in April, while the U.S. new home sales are forecast to increase 462K in May compared with 454K in April.	USD pairs, Dow, NASDAQ S&P	Tuesday 10:00	Tuesday 15:00	Wednesday 00:00
U.S. GDP	The main measure of economic activity and growth. The final reading of US GDP for Q1 2013 is expected to show growth at a faster pace (2.4% exp. in Q1 after expanding 0.4% in Q4 2012). The USD could benefit from accelerating U.S. economic growth as investors firm expectations that US monetary policy tightening will occur sooner rather than later.	USD pairs, Dow, NASDAQ S&P, WTI, Precious Metals	Wed 08:30	Wed 13:30	Wed 22:30
U.K. GDP	The main measure of economic activity and growth. Following 3 consecutive quarters of contraction, the U.K. returned to growth in Q3 2012, only to see its economy contracting again by 0.3% q/q in Q4 2012. The UK economy averted an unprecedented triple-dip recession and expanded by 0.3% q/q in Q1 2013. The final reading should be in line with the preliminary estimates and should confirm the 0.3% q/q growth in Q1. However, if this number is revised lower, GBP pairs are likely to turn bearish as expectations of more easing by the Bank of England rise.	GBP pairs, FTSE, Brent	Thu 04:30	Thu 09:30	Thu 18:30
EU Summit	EU leaders are due to meet for a special economic summit to discuss measures to spur growth in the region. With pro- and anti-austerity views creating divisions between members of the 27-nation union on how to get the region growing, it would not be a surprise to see the 2 day event resulting in a deadlock. The EUR is unlikely to benefit from another unproductive EU Summit but could fall sharply if more bad news surfaces.	EUR pairs, EuroStoxx, CAC, DAX, FTSE, Precious metals	Thu and Fri all day event	Thu and Fri all day event	Thu and Fri all day event
U.S Personal Income and Outlays	A measure of consumer income and spending, released along with the PCE Price Index- the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to rise by 0.4% m/m in May after the unexpected 0.2% m/m drop in April. The Fed’s preferred core PCE Index could show inflation inching slightly higher by 0.1% m/m after staying flat in the previous month, but not enough to prompt the Federal Open Markets Committee to make sudden changes to its current monetary policy.	USD pairs, Dow, NASDAQ S&P	Thu 08:30	Thu 13:30	Thu 22:30
U.S. Pending Home Sales	A leading indicator of housing market activity measuring pending home sale contracts. Pending home sales in the United States are expected to register a bigger increase by 1.1% m/m in May, compared with 0.3% m/m in April.	USD pairs, Dow, NASDAQ S&P	Thu 10:00	Thu 15:00	Fri 00:00
Japan CPI	The main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of Japan. The massive QE operations done by the Bank of Japan could finally begin to create inflationary effects. The Japanese national core inflation gauge is forecast to rise to 0% y/y in May, up from -0.4% y/y in April. With the index climbing from deflation territory, the report could lend support to the JPY on expectations that the Bank of Japan might not need to become even more aggressive with further measures to fight deflation.	JPY pairs, Nikkei	Thu 19:30	Fri 00:30	Fri 09:30
U.S. Consumer Sentiment	The University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy. The final reading of the U.S. consumer sentiment index for June is forecast to be revised higher to 83.1 from a preliminary estimate of 82.7. The report will wrap up what is expected to be a week of decent U.S. economic data that could boost the USD as the market prices expectations that the Fed could start reducing its monthly asset purchases later this year/2014.	USD pairs, Dow, NASDAQ S&P	Fri 09:55	Fri 14:55	Fri 23:55

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Commissioned by Think Forex

Written by George Tchetvertakov

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