Same Market Themes, Different Perspectives

As market participants toil with the Fed’s changing commentary regarding QE in the U.S., this week should provide some rest bite from speculator driven volatility based solely on central bank commentary.

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As market participants toil with the Fed’s changing commentary regarding QE in the U.S., this week should provide some rest bite from speculator driven volatility based solely on central bank commentary. The macro data calendar is chock-a-block with figures that will update the ongoing themes that are currently influencing the FX market:

1. Yield differentials and expectations of future yield differentials amongst the G20
2. Possible(or probable) Fed tapering and timing
3. Chinese growth and asset bubble
4. New Governor at the Bank of Canada affecting ongoing monetary policy in Canada
5. New Governor at the Bank of England affecting ongoing monetary policy in the U.K
6. Slowing of dovish policy expectations at the RBA in Australia
7. European debt/political instability/austerity and effect on European bonds & economic performance including the Euro
8. Intensity of Bank of Japan monetary policy within a broader political split within Japan
9. Increasing probability that a disconnect is occurring between physical gold prices and paper gold prices
10. Risk sentiment/appetite towards commodities, commodity currencies, equities and bonds

These are the core themes speculators are currently focused on. Macro data will only matter if it affects one or more of the above themes which is why this week is important.

The most important macro calendar events this week shown in order of release:

Macroeconomic data	Day of Release	Themes affected	Primary currencies affected
U.S Existing Home Sales	Monday	1,2,10	USD
Canadian Retail Sales	Tuesday	1,4,10	CAD
EUR Consumer confidence	Tuesday	1,7	EUR
New Zealand Trade Balance	Tuesday	1,10	NZD
Australian CPI	Wednesday	1,6	AUD
Chinese PMI’s	Wednesday	1,2,3,4,6,8,10	CNY, USD
German & European PMI’s	Wednesday	1,5,7,10	EUR
U.S. Manufacturing PMI's	Wednesday	1,2,10	USD
U.S. New Home Sales	Wednesday	1,2,10	USD
New Zealand interest rate decision	Wednesday	1,10	NZD
German IFO	Thursday	1,7,10	EUR
European Money Supply	Thursday	1,7	EUR
U.K GDP	Thursday	1,5,10	GBP
U.S. Durable Goods Orders	Thursday	1,2,10	USD
U.S. Unemployment Claims	Thursday	1,2,10	USD

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Commissioned by Think Forex

Written by George Tchetvertakov

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