5 things to watch in tonight’s GOP debate

Contenders prepare to pummel one another as Trump and Cruz watch from above.

By Alex Isenstadt
January 14, 2016
Politico


CHARLESTON, S.C. – Establishment Republicans are bracing themselves for a circular firing squad as the 2016 GOP candidates gather here for Thursday's debate.

A cluster of contenders in a fierce competition to command the mainstream GOP lane are almost certain to collide, campaign aides and strategists say. Most of the heat is expected to be directed at Marco Rubio, who, with time running out until the first votes are cast, is anxious to position himself as the establishment front-runner.

Donald Trump may come under fire, too — notably from Ted Cruz, who finally appears ready to take off the gloves after the real estate mogul raised questions about his Canadian birth and suggested the Texas senator may be legally unable to occupy the Oval Office.

Here’s what Republican insiders are watching in the penultimate debate before the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses.

1. Ted’s choice

Cruz has decided to shelve his Mr. Nice Guy routine with Trump. After a week of Trump suggesting Cruz has an eligibility problem because he was born in Canada to an American mother, the senator has hit back — hard. “Donald comes from New York,” Cruz said Tuesday, “and he embodies New York values."

If Trump comes after Cruz in Charleston, many expect Cruz to strike back in no uncertain terms. With several recent polls showing Trump closing the gap with Cruz in Iowa, they point out, the senator may have no choice.

“If Ted Cruz wants to finally end the Canada issue, he can in the debate by directly confronting Trump,” said Brett O’Donnell, who was a top debate coach for Mitt Romney in 2012 and advised Lindsey Graham before he dropped out of the GOP race last month. “Cruz and Trump both know that Trump’s ‘questioning’ of Cruz is an attack.”

Of course, Trump may elect to play hands off with Cruz, a Princeton debate champ who has performed well onstage. Whatever Trump decides, expect Cruz, a disciplined candidate who has made few unforced errors, to be prepared.

“The Cruz team has a game plan and they don’t seem to be letting anything knock them off stride,” said Rick Wiley, who served as Scott Walker’s campaign manager.


2. Marco’s fight

Team Rubio is bracing for an avalanche of attacks. In recent days, Cruz has gone after him on immigration and Jeb Bush has hammered him over his Senate attendance — attacks that could play out onstage.

But the hardest hits could well come from Chris Christie, who has drawn a bead on Rubio — going so far as to say in a radio interview last week that Hillary Clinton would “pat him on the head and then cut his heart out” if he were the GOP nominee.

Both candidates are making a serious play in New Hampshire, and Christie — whose path to the nomination depends on a strong showing in the state — wants to ensure that Rubio doesn’t finish ahead of him there.

Those close to Rubio say he’s preparing a counteroffensive. The senator has been hard at work on debate prep, tucking away for a practice session while on the trail in Iowa last week. He also held a Tuesday afternoon session at his Capitol Hill headquarters, a source close to the campaign said. Rubio has been relying on a small group of advisers to help him prepare, with strategist Todd Harris guiding the effort.

The debate’s format plays to Rubio’s strengths. Fox Business is allowing candidates to give 90-second answers, a boost from the 60 seconds it granted in its November debate. That means Rubio, a rhetorically talented candidate who likes to give detailed answers, will have more time to talk — or, as the case may be, defend himself.

Some Rubio supporters say that, after remaining above the fray for much of the campaign, they’re eager to see the senator show a more assertive side. With less than three weeks until the Iowa caucuses, and with Rubio yet to hold a lead in any early primary state, the pressure is on.

“He’s got to elevate himself,” said Barry Bennett, Ben Carson’s former campaign manager. “The whole concept that someone can wait for six weeks and then turn it on, that’s just not going to happen.”


3. Bush vs. Trump

If Bush is going down, he’s going down swinging. The former Florida governor, who remains stuck in the middle of the pack, targeted Trump aggressively during the last debate and hasn’t let up since. During one campaign stop last month, the mild-mannered former governor called the bomb-throwing real estate mogul a “jerk.”

“More than any other candidate, Jeb has to show he can successfully attack Trump to convince voters that he’s both ready to be president, and that Trump is not,” O’Donnell said.

The stakes are high for Bush, who, like most establishment contenders, is pinning his hopes on the New Hampshire primary. Accompanying Bush on the trail in Iowa on Tuesday was Jon Kraushar, the longtime GOP debate coach and image consultant who has been advising the former governor. During one campaign stop. Kraushar was seen conferring with Bush staffers Michael Steel and Trent Wisecup, who have also been working on debate prep.

While Bush’s team is eager to frame the race as a showdown between the former governor and the real estate mogul, some Bush supporters aren’t convinced that going after Trump is the best route. Since he began his anti-Trump offensive last month, they point out, the former governor hasn’t seen a substantial uptick in his polling numbers.

4. Action movie or college seminar?

Fox Business’s November debate was a wonkfest — a policy-packed two-hour program full of questions about economic matters and foreign affairs.

Those who’ve spoken with the network about its plans say they’re expecting much the same this time around. (One campaign adviser joked that reporters might even be bored.) If that’s the case, it could be bad news for Trump or Carson, who are usually less at ease when it comes to delving into policy specifics.

Yet others point out that, with the first primaries nearing, the campaign has taken on a different tone in recent days. Attacks, both on the trail and on the TV airwaves, have grown noticeably sharper since the start of the year. The latest example: On Wednesday, one day before the debate, a pro-Cruz super PAC released a searing ad invoking the San Bernardino terrorist attacks and alleging that Rubio’s effort to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill imperiled national security.

“These debates have been pretty ho-hum so far,” Wiley said. “But the campaign has certainly shifted since Jan. 1.”


5. Four-car pileup

Establishment candidates have so far been stymied in their efforts to slow down the Trump-Cruz train — in no small part because they’ve been busy fighting amongst themselves.

That dynamic is almost certain to play out again on Thursday night. With Bush, Christie, Rubio, and John Kasich all competing aggressively in New Hampshire — and all within striking distance of one another — there’s simply little incentive for them to play nice.

“That group of people that are bunched up need to separate themselves,” Wiley said.

As the establishment race in New Hampshire has narrowed, the skirmishing has permeated the campaign. In recent days, Ray Washburne, Christie’s national finance chair, has been calling around to major Republican donors in Ohio, Kasich’s home turf, in hopes of bringing them aboard.

If the establishment-on-establishment violence becomes the focus of the debate, some are convinced that Trump will escape unscathed.

“The problem with any of the candidates attacking each other is that it lets Trump have a pass when they need to be engaging him directly with little time left before the voting begins,” O’Donnell said.


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5 things to watch in tonight’s GOP debate

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