Operation 1,237: The Hunt for GOP Delegates
By Caitlin Huey-Burns
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
April 14, 2016
The state of the Republican presidential race can be summed up by one number: 1,237.
It represents the total delegates required to secure the nomination. And it’s not going to change, given it’s a simple majority (50 percent plus one) of the delegates to the GOP convention.
“We are a party of the Constitution, a party of rules and laws—not men,” says Republican National Committeeman Peter Feaman from Florida and member of the standing committee on rules. “The majority vote has been the way we've picked a nominee from the time that Republicans met in Ripon, Wisconsin, in 1854.”
In other words, there is no wiggle room.
But questions abound when it comes to the machinations behind the scenes, and, if no candidate hits that threshold, is there a point at which close enough may be good enough?
How close or far away the candidates are from 1,237 won’t be known until after the final primary on June 7 in California. RNC members and strategists alike say that while the threshold isn't flexible, there are different ways to wrangle delegates ahead of the first ballot even after the primaries have wrapped up.
Donald Trump’s recent complaints about the rules and a “rigged” system, plus his recent hiring of delegate strategists, suggests his campaign anticipates difficulty in securing the requisite number of delegates.
After missing opportunities to pick up delegates at state conventions, the Trump campaign is crying foul, arguing that whoever has the most delegates and won the most states should become the nominee, even if that person doesn’t hit 1,237. Former political consultant Roger Stone suggested Wednesday that Trump delegates "pledge" their loyalty to him throughout the balloting process.
A recent AP poll appears to support this notion: 58 percent of Republicans surveyed said the nomination should go to whomever has the most delegates, while 40 percent disagreed. Republicans are also aware of the public relations optics that could ensue if Trump comes close. Some have started to estimate thresholds Trump would have to meet to be able to coalesce the delegates around his candidacy to achieve the necessary 1,237 delegates.
Randy Evans, an RNC rules committee member from Georgia, projects that if Trump concludes the primary process with at least 1,100 delegates, he could convince enough unbound delegates to achieve 1,237 by the time the convention starts. If Trump comes in below 1,000, however, Evans believes the contest will go into a free for all.
“The overwhelming likelihood is he is going to be 75-125 short,” Evans told RCP.
The logic suggests the most interesting contest could be the wrangling that occurs between California and Cleveland.
Forecasters estimate there will be roughly 130 to 200 unbound delegates going into the convention. Josh Putnam, a campaign expert at the University of Georgia who runs the delegate site Frontloading HQ, estimates Trump's final tally could be somewhere between 1,172 and, at best, 1,255. "There is very little margin for error," he says.
Feaman believes “There are some unbound delegates around the country that could be subject to politicking or convincing." The rules regarding the limits to wooing delegates are unclear and leave open many possibilities for desperate candidates.
Evans notes that in addition to courting unbound delegates, Trump could also try to team up with a rival and offer a vice presidential spot in exchange for delegates. Or, he notes, Ted Cruz could do the same. Marco Rubio, notably, is refusing to release his delegates.
“It’s very likely this remains a very decentralized delegate-by-delegate battle, and to woo a very limited number of unbound delegates,” says Putnam. He notes that after the 2012 election, the RNC amended several rules to ensure a swifter nominating process, including limiting the number of unbound delegates. The effect is that there are fewer opportunities to try to win over delegates after the process has played out in the states. This could negatively impact Trump.
After Wisconsin’s primary and a convention in Colorado, Trump’s path to 1,237 became more difficult, but not impossible—forecasters estimate he would need roughly 60 percent of the remaining delegates. Primaries in New York next week and Pennsylvania the week after could help him get back on track.
Other strategists believe Trump will have trouble convincing delegates to turn his away, no matter how close he is.
“There is no evidence he can do that. He essentially conceded Colorado, for example, by not even participating,” says Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Cruz campaign. Furthermore, Trump will have to contend with Cruz’s organization, which has already worked to secure delegates, including those bound to Trump on the first ballot. “Cruz has secured a significant number of those who will now switch and vote for him on the second ballot,” says Tyler.
Strategists have been perplexed by Trump’s lack of organization, given that he has been the party front-runner for several months. He recently hired Paul Manafort to run his convention strategy. On Wednesday, the campaign hired former Scott Walker campaign manager Rick Wiley, who once worked as political director of the RNC, as a top adviser.
“It’s now incumbent upon Trump to show he is the greatest deal maker in history,” says former RNC communications director Doug Heye, a member of the Never Trump movement. “He hasn’t done anything yet.”
The 1,237 number isn’t typically the focus of so much campaign coverage, as the leading candidate for the nomination usually sews it up well before the convention. But this year, of course, is no typical year. Trump is leading the GOP field in delegates and states won, but is not the consensus candidate for the party. His two main rivals for the nod are really only staying in the race to prevent him from reaching 1,237 before the convention.
“Since 1976, I don’t think anybody has cared what the rules say because there’s been a presumptive nominee,” says Curly Haugland, an RNC member from North Dakota. “If there had been a consensus, we wouldn’t be having this discussion because everybody would say, ‘OK, we’re going with the candidate.’”
Without a consensus choice, campaigns and strategists will spend the next several months anticipating different convention scenarios. Some, like Evans, aren’t discounting the prospect of a “filibustered” convention.
Says Putnam: “There’s a chaotic element to every avenue involved in this short of getting 1,237.”
The state of the Republican presidential race can be summed up by one number: 1,237.
It represents the total delegates required to secure the nomination. And it’s not going to change, given it’s a simple majority (50 percent plus one) of the delegates to the GOP convention.
“We are a party of the Constitution, a party of rules and laws—not men,” says Republican National Committeeman Peter Feaman from Florida and member of the standing committee on rules. “The majority vote has been the way we've picked a nominee from the time that Republicans met in Ripon, Wisconsin, in 1854.”
In other words, there is no wiggle room.
But questions abound when it comes to the machinations behind the scenes, and, if no candidate hits that threshold, is there a point at which close enough may be good enough?
How close or far away the candidates are from 1,237 won’t be known until after the final primary on June 7 in California. RNC members and strategists alike say that while the threshold isn't flexible, there are different ways to wrangle delegates ahead of the first ballot even after the primaries have wrapped up.
Donald Trump’s recent complaints about the rules and a “rigged” system, plus his recent hiring of delegate strategists, suggests his campaign anticipates difficulty in securing the requisite number of delegates.
After missing opportunities to pick up delegates at state conventions, the Trump campaign is crying foul, arguing that whoever has the most delegates and won the most states should become the nominee, even if that person doesn’t hit 1,237. Former political consultant Roger Stone suggested Wednesday that Trump delegates "pledge" their loyalty to him throughout the balloting process.
A recent AP poll appears to support this notion: 58 percent of Republicans surveyed said the nomination should go to whomever has the most delegates, while 40 percent disagreed. Republicans are also aware of the public relations optics that could ensue if Trump comes close. Some have started to estimate thresholds Trump would have to meet to be able to coalesce the delegates around his candidacy to achieve the necessary 1,237 delegates.
Randy Evans, an RNC rules committee member from Georgia, projects that if Trump concludes the primary process with at least 1,100 delegates, he could convince enough unbound delegates to achieve 1,237 by the time the convention starts. If Trump comes in below 1,000, however, Evans believes the contest will go into a free for all.
“The overwhelming likelihood is he is going to be 75-125 short,” Evans told RCP.
The logic suggests the most interesting contest could be the wrangling that occurs between California and Cleveland.
Forecasters estimate there will be roughly 130 to 200 unbound delegates going into the convention. Josh Putnam, a campaign expert at the University of Georgia who runs the delegate site Frontloading HQ, estimates Trump's final tally could be somewhere between 1,172 and, at best, 1,255. "There is very little margin for error," he says.
Feaman believes “There are some unbound delegates around the country that could be subject to politicking or convincing." The rules regarding the limits to wooing delegates are unclear and leave open many possibilities for desperate candidates.
Evans notes that in addition to courting unbound delegates, Trump could also try to team up with a rival and offer a vice presidential spot in exchange for delegates. Or, he notes, Ted Cruz could do the same. Marco Rubio, notably, is refusing to release his delegates.
“It’s very likely this remains a very decentralized delegate-by-delegate battle, and to woo a very limited number of unbound delegates,” says Putnam. He notes that after the 2012 election, the RNC amended several rules to ensure a swifter nominating process, including limiting the number of unbound delegates. The effect is that there are fewer opportunities to try to win over delegates after the process has played out in the states. This could negatively impact Trump.
After Wisconsin’s primary and a convention in Colorado, Trump’s path to 1,237 became more difficult, but not impossible—forecasters estimate he would need roughly 60 percent of the remaining delegates. Primaries in New York next week and Pennsylvania the week after could help him get back on track.
Other strategists believe Trump will have trouble convincing delegates to turn his away, no matter how close he is.
“There is no evidence he can do that. He essentially conceded Colorado, for example, by not even participating,” says Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Cruz campaign. Furthermore, Trump will have to contend with Cruz’s organization, which has already worked to secure delegates, including those bound to Trump on the first ballot. “Cruz has secured a significant number of those who will now switch and vote for him on the second ballot,” says Tyler.
Strategists have been perplexed by Trump’s lack of organization, given that he has been the party front-runner for several months. He recently hired Paul Manafort to run his convention strategy. On Wednesday, the campaign hired former Scott Walker campaign manager Rick Wiley, who once worked as political director of the RNC, as a top adviser.
“It’s now incumbent upon Trump to show he is the greatest deal maker in history,” says former RNC communications director Doug Heye, a member of the Never Trump movement. “He hasn’t done anything yet.”
The 1,237 number isn’t typically the focus of so much campaign coverage, as the leading candidate for the nomination usually sews it up well before the convention. But this year, of course, is no typical year. Trump is leading the GOP field in delegates and states won, but is not the consensus candidate for the party. His two main rivals for the nod are really only staying in the race to prevent him from reaching 1,237 before the convention.
“Since 1976, I don’t think anybody has cared what the rules say because there’s been a presumptive nominee,” says Curly Haugland, an RNC member from North Dakota. “If there had been a consensus, we wouldn’t be having this discussion because everybody would say, ‘OK, we’re going with the candidate.’”
Without a consensus choice, campaigns and strategists will spend the next several months anticipating different convention scenarios. Some, like Evans, aren’t discounting the prospect of a “filibustered” convention.
Says Putnam: “There’s a chaotic element to every avenue involved in this short of getting 1,237.”
Article Link to Real Clear Politics:
0 Response to "Operation 1,237: The Hunt for GOP Delegates"
Post a Comment